SIGNALLIVE
BDI 2,944 • Transpacific FEU $6,482 • WCI $4,639 • Crude $76.80 • Ceasefire over: US strikes Iran, Iran hits 6 Gulf states July 12 • Zero large vessels cross Hormuz since July 7, Lloyd's List says • WCI hits $4,639, highest since Sept 2024, East Coast nears $9,000 • Section 122, forced-labor tariff, USMCA converge within 11 days • Port congestion hits 4-year high, 10%+ of fleet at anchorBDI 2,944 • Transpacific FEU $6,482 • WCI $4,639 • Crude $76.80 • Ceasefire over: US strikes Iran, Iran hits 6 Gulf states July 12 • Zero large vessels cross Hormuz since July 7, Lloyd's List says • WCI hits $4,639, highest since Sept 2024, East Coast nears $9,000 • Section 122, forced-labor tariff, USMCA converge within 11 days • Port congestion hits 4-year high, 10%+ of fleet at anchor
⚡ BREAKINGUPDATED July 13, 2026: The ceasefire is over. The US struck roughly 140 Iranian military sites overnight July 11 to 12, and Iran retaliated July 12 with missiles and drones against six Gulf states (Qatar, the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan) in its largest attack in months. A Cyprus-flagged container ship was set ablaze near Oman on July 12 with a crew member still missing. Lloyd's List Intelligence shows no vessel above 10,000 dwt has transited Hormuz's Southern Highway with AIS on since July 7, and Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have all suspended transits. The Drewry WCI hit $4,639 this week, its highest level since September 2024, and Freightos has East Coast transpacific rates leveling off near $9,000/FEU. Three tariff deadlines now converge within 11 days: Section 301 forced-labor hearings closed July 9, USMCA Round 3 opens July 20, and Section 122 expires July 24.

⚔ Weekly Supply Chain War Room

Week of July 13, 2026 (updated weekly)

Informational briefing — not operational advice

EXECUTIVE BRIEF — CEO/COO

Treat Hormuz as functionally closed to large commercial vessels, not merely volatile. The ceasefire that held since mid-June is over: the US struck roughly 140 Iranian sites overnight July 11 to 12, Iran hit six Gulf states on July 12 in its largest attack in months, and a Cyprus-flagged container ship was set on fire near Oman with a crew member still missing. Lloyd's List Intelligence shows zero vessels above 10,000 dwt have crossed the Strait's Southern Highway on AIS since July 7, and every major carrier has suspended transits regardless of CENTCOM's public position that the Strait remains open. Freight has caught up to the risk: the Drewry WCI hit $4,639 this week, its highest level since September 2024, and Freightos has East Coast transpacific rates leveling off near $9,000/FEU. Layer on top of that three tariff deadlines converging within 11 days (Section 301 forced-labor duties, USMCA Round 3 on July 20, and Section 122's expiry on July 24), and this is the week to rerun Q3 cost assumptions rather than wait for next Monday.

Top 5 Risks This Week

1
Ceasefire declared over; roughly 140 US strikes on Iran, Iran hits six Gulf states July 12, Cyprus-flagged ship set ablaze near Oman; zero large-vessel Hormuz transits since July 7 per Lloyd's List
Middle East
Critical
2
WCI $4,639 (+2%, July 9 data), highest since September 2024; Freightos East Coast leveling near $9,000/FEU; BDI 2,944 on capesize strength
Global / Freight
Critical
3
Three tariff deadlines converge within 11 days: Section 301 forced-labor hearings closed July 9, USMCA Round 3 opens July 20 targeting an 82% content rule, Section 122 expires July 24
Global / Trade
High
4
Brent rebounded to $76.80 (July 10, +5% WoW) as the Hormuz disruption keeps a risk premium in the market; no near-term relief signal
Global / Energy
High
5
DRAM spot prices climbing again (TrendForce, July 7 data); Q3 contract increases forecast at 13 to 18% QoQ on sustained AI server demand
Asia-Pacific
High

Business Considerations

1

Consider treating Hormuz as functionally closed to large commercial vessels for planning purposes. Lloyd's List shows zero vessels above 10,000 dwt have transited the Southern Highway on AIS since July 7, and every major carrier has suspended transits. Do not plan around CENTCOM's public "open" characterization alone.

2

Consider having rules-of-origin and forced-labor compliance documentation ready ahead of the July 20 USMCA Round 3 (reportedly targeting an 82% regional content rule) and any post-hearing USTR action on the Section 301 forced-labor duties, given the July 9 hearing closed without a final rate determination.

3

Consider updating H2 freight cost models against the July 9 WCI composite of $4,639/40ft, the highest reading since September 2024, and Freightos data showing East Coast transpacific rates leveling off near $9,000/FEU with new GRIs of $2,000 to $3,000/FEU landing July 15.

4

Consider tracking the Section 122 global surcharge expiry (July 24) alongside the Section 301 hearing outcome; India's July 6 submission to USTR is a useful reference point for how exporters are contesting the underlying forced-labor findings.

5

Consider reviewing Q3 energy cost assumptions given Brent's rebound to $76.80 (July 10, +5% WoW) as the Hormuz disruption keeps a risk premium in the market; do not model against the brief dip seen earlier in the week.

6

Consider building forward allocation contracts for DRAM and memory-dependent components now that TrendForce's Q3 forecast has moved to 13 to 18% QoQ increases, with spot prices still climbing on sustained AI server demand.

📄 PDF download and email brief — available in Phase 2

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