BDI 3,186 • Transpacific FEU $6,818 • WCI $4,473 • Crude $90.23 • US strikes Iran's Larak Island, Iran hits back at Jordan bases • Drewry WCI falls 1% to $4,473 as Baltic Dry jumps 12% • Wheat hits highest level since Feb 2023 on Black Sea collapse • Typhoon Saudel weakens, Manila port congestion eases • China manufacturing PMI improves to 49.8, still in contractionBDI 3,186 • Transpacific FEU $6,818 • WCI $4,473 • Crude $90.23 • US strikes Iran's Larak Island, Iran hits back at Jordan bases • Drewry WCI falls 1% to $4,473 as Baltic Dry jumps 12% • Wheat hits highest level since Feb 2023 on Black Sea collapse • Typhoon Saudel weakens, Manila port congestion eases • China manufacturing PMI improves to 49.8, still in contraction
⚡ BREAKINGUPDATED August 31, 2026: US Central Command struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island on August 30, saying the action was limited and precise, intended to prevent Iranian forces from launching rockets carrying sea mines into the Strait of Hormuz; it is the first publicly reported direct US strike on Iranian territory in more than a month (Al Jazeera, August 30). Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded within hours with what it called a combined missile and drone operation against two US installations in Jordan, King Hussein Air Base and Al Azraq Air Base. Jordan's military said it intercepted eight missiles that breached its airspace and reported no injuries at either base; Iran's Revolutionary Guard claimed to have destroyed technical and repair infrastructure and fighter jet deployment sites at both sites, a claim not corroborated by Jordanian or US accounts (Haaretz, August 31). The exchange overtakes the temporary transit corridor Iran and Oman had proposed just days earlier, on August 26, a roughly 7 mile wide route that Iranian officials stressed was not a full reopening (Al Jazeera, August 26). Brent crude fell to $88.29 on August 28 before climbing back to $90.23 on August 31 (TradingEconomics). Ocean freight reversed direction this week: Drewry's WCI composite fell 1% to $4,473 (August 27 data) while the Baltic Dry Index jumped 12% to 3,186 (August 28). Wheat hit its highest level since February 2023 as Ukraine and Russia's Black Sea exports kept collapsing. Typhoon Saudel weakened and briefly reentered PAR without landfall, and Manila's port congestion eased on Portcast's tracker. China's official manufacturing PMI improved to 49.8 in August, still in contraction but the best reading since the current run began.
⚔ Weekly Supply Chain War Room
Week of August 31, 2026 (updated weekly)
Informational briefing — not operational advice
EXECUTIVE BRIEF — CEO/COO
The headline this week is kinetic again, not economic. The US struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island August 30 to stop a mine laying operation, and Iran answered within hours with missiles and drones aimed at two American bases in Jordan; Jordan says it intercepted eight of them and reported no injuries, though Iran claims to have hit base infrastructure, a claim neither Jordan nor the US has confirmed. That is a wider conflict footprint than the trade suspension story we had last week, and it overtakes the temporary Hormuz corridor Iran and Oman had floated just days before. Elsewhere the picture eased: container rates fell, Manila's port congestion dropped, and China's manufacturing PMI improved for the first time in months. Pulse Score moves to 92 from 91, a small net move given how much larger the Middle East escalation is than the offsetting improvements elsewhere. Keep contingency plans live on the Hormuz corridor talks, they have not been implemented and may not survive this exchange.
Top 5 Risks This Week
1
US strikes two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island August 30 to stop a mine laying operation; Iran retaliates within hours against two US bases in Jordan, Jordan intercepts eight missiles with no injuries reported; the temporary Hormuz corridor Iran and Oman proposed August 26 has not been implemented
Middle East
Critical
2
Drewry WCI falls 1% to $4,473 (August 27 data) as Transpacific rates cool, while the Baltic Dry Index jumps 12% to 3,186, reversing last week's container up, dry bulk down pattern
Global / Freight
High
3
Wheat hits its highest level since February 2023 as Ukraine's exports fall 73% year over year and Russia's fall 61% year over year in the first weeks of August; Brent crude swings between $88.29 and $90.23 around the Larak Island strikes
Global / Commodities
High
4
Typhoon Saudel weakens and briefly reenters PAR without landfall, a new low pressure area has a high chance of forming, and Manila's port congestion eases to a median 1.03 day wait on Portcast's tracker
ASEAN / Weather and Ports
High
5
Section 232 comment period on 14 more steel, aluminum, and copper derivatives closes August 27 with no determination yet; the 25 state lawsuit against the Section 301 forced labor tariffs remains unresolved
North America / Trade Policy
Medium
Business Considerations
1
Consider treating the August 30 US Iran exchange as evidence the conflict's footprint is widening, extending beyond the Strait itself to a US base on Jordanian soil.
2
Consider maintaining Cape routing and elevated war risk insurance assumptions rather than shifting capacity toward the unimplemented Iran Oman temporary corridor proposal.
3
Consider cautiously easing Manila schedule buffers given the drop in vessel wait, while continuing to watch the new low pressure area's forecast track.
4
Consider updating H2 freight cost models for the reversal between falling container rates and rising dry bulk rates.
5
Consider stress testing food cost assumptions against wheat's highest level since February 2023, given both Russian and Ukrainian Black Sea export volumes fell by more than half year over year this month.
6
Consider continuing to treat the Philippines' exemption from the Section 301 overcapacity investigation as a durable sourcing advantage, while monitoring whether its 12.5% forced labor tariff review produces a cut to 10%.
📄 PDF download and email brief — available in Phase 2