SIGNALLIVE
BDI 1,847 • Transpacific FEU $3,200 • WCI $2,140 • Crude $81.2 • Hormuz transits 4/day — carriers on Cape routing • Transpacific +13-14% — Peak Season Surcharges active • USTR Section 301 — 16 ASEAN countries under investigation • El Niño active — PAGASA forecasts 9-17 cyclones through Oct 2026 • Asia-Europe FAK +14% — CMA CGM tariff wall effective June 1BDI 1,847 • Transpacific FEU $3,200 • WCI $2,140 • Crude $81.2 • Hormuz transits 4/day — carriers on Cape routing • Transpacific +13-14% — Peak Season Surcharges active • USTR Section 301 — 16 ASEAN countries under investigation • El Niño active — PAGASA forecasts 9-17 cyclones through Oct 2026 • Asia-Europe FAK +14% — CMA CGM tariff wall effective June 1

⚔ Weekly Supply Chain War Room

Week of June 1, 2026 (updated weekly)

Informational briefing — not operational advice

EXECUTIVE BRIEF — CEO

Three developments require immediate attention: multi-carrier FAK rates effective June 1 pushed Asia-Europe up 14% in a single week; USTR opened Section 301 investigations into every major ASEAN and China-Plus-One sourcing alternative, with a July 24 remedy target; and Hormuz enters week 3 at 4 transits per day with no carrier routing change. The rate environment for H2 2026 is now materially higher than any budget built in Q4 2025. If your supply chain has sourcing in Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, or Malaysia, your trade compliance team needs to assess Section 301 exposure before July 24.

Top 5 Risks This Week

1
Hormuz ceasefire stalled — week 3 at 4 transits/day, Suez return abandoned
Middle East
Critical
2
USTR Section 301 — 16 countries including all major ASEAN sourcing hubs, July 24 target
Global / Trade
High
3
Multi-carrier FAK increases effective June 1 — Asia-Europe up 14% in one week
Global / Freight
High
4
Semiconductor and helium supply crisis — DRAM up 40%, Taiwan/Korea fabs rationing
Asia-Pacific
High
5
Typhoon season active — PAGASA forecasts 9–17 cyclones through October 2026
ASEAN
Medium

Business Considerations

1

Consider reviewing H2 Asia-Europe carrier contracts immediately — CMA CGM FAK effective June 1 at $4,700/40ft (N.Europe) and $5,500/40ft (W.Med) are 14–15% above last week's levels and represent the new market floor

2

Consider mapping all ASEAN and China-Plus-One supplier locations against the 22 sectors under the USTR Section 301 overcapacity investigation — Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, Malaysia, India, and Mexico are all named with a July 24 remedy target

3

Consider maintaining current safety stock on Gulf-sourced materials and holding routing decisions until the Hormuz ceasefire is formally ratified — CMA CGM's Suez return attempt was abandoned this week, and carrier guidance points to Cape routing through Q3

4

Consider assessing semiconductor-dependent supply lines for DRAM, memory, and helium-sensitive components — prices are up 40%+ in Q1 and fabs in Taiwan and South Korea are rationing helium following Qatari supply disruption

5

Consider confirming typhoon-season contingency plans with Philippines and ASEAN suppliers now — PAGASA forecasts 9–17 cyclones through October and the season is active

6

Consider engaging trade compliance to review both Section 301 windows simultaneously — the July 5 China four-year review deadline and the July 24 overcapacity remedy target require separate HTS code assessments

📄 PDF download and email brief — available in Phase 2

View Full Playbook →