Global Risk Monitor

The Marine Minerals Administration's final Hurricane Isaias update showed 9.92% of Gulf of Mexico oil output still shut in as of October 14, 11:00 a.m. CDT, with production near 90% of normal; EIA diesel eased to 6.179 dollars a gallon for the week of October 12, 2026, while WTI settled at 101.41 dollars on October 16, its highest since September 17

Drewry's Shanghai to Rotterdam rate rose 6% to 3,522 dollars and Shanghai to Genoa rose 7% to 3,945 dollars, the first Asia to Europe rise after 13 consecutive weekly declines, as carriers push FAK increases effective October 19; BIMCO puts the Suez Canal's share of Suez and Cape container capacity at 36% for early October

PAGASA forecasts Typhoon Champi to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility on October 20 as Rosal, with Wind Signal No. 3 or 4 possible over parts of Northern Luzon and Bicol; Portcast's Manila median wait more than doubled to 1.15 days for October 11 to 17; Hapag-Lloyd's suspension of new bookings to Manila, Batangas and Subic Bay runs through December 31, 2026

Al Jazeera, citing UKMTO, reported at least 12 ships attacked around Hormuz in the week ending October 16, a weekly high for the war per CBS News, and the IRGC said two crude tankers caught fire after hitting mines on October 18; the Saudi led coalition intercepted a ballistic missile launched toward Yanbu, the Red Sea outlet for the East West pipeline, on October 16; Iran says Hormuz reopens only if the US meets its seven day conditions

Drewry's WCI composite rose 3% to 4,485 dollars and Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 3% to 7,884 dollars; Everstream put Shanghai's average wait at 3.51 days; China's Q3 GDP grew 4.5% year on year; PAGASA forecasts Typhoon Champi to move toward Taiwan over the Philippine Sea

No fresh India specific freight or trade policy development meeting ChainPulse's named source standard was found in sources dated October 12 to 19, 2026; score held flat on a data gap

Panama Canal daily slots were scheduled to rise to 33 from October 15, 2026 under advisory ADV-36-2026, with maximum Neopanamax draft at 49.0 feet; implementation of the slot increase was not independently confirmed this week

Houthi missiles struck Aden's Al Maashiq Palace on October 15, killing five, and hit Aden International Airport on October 16; BIMCO puts the Suez Canal's share of Suez and Cape container capacity at 36% for early October; the Premier Alliance's FE1 Suez transit could not be confirmed

Gulf escalation, with a weekly high in Hormuz ship attacks, two reported mine strikes and a missile aimed at Yanbu, pushed Brent to 109.86 dollars, its highest settle since May 19; Isaias recovery and easing diesel only partly offset it, and PAGASA forecasts Typhoon Champi to enter the PAR on October 20, so the Pulse Score rises to 91