Global Risk Monitor

The Section 232 comment period on 14 more steel, aluminum, and copper derivatives closed August 27 with no Commerce determination yet; the 25 state attorneys general lawsuit against the Section 301 forced labor tariffs remains unresolved; national average diesel rose to $5.652 a gallon for the week of August 24, its sixth increase in seven weeks and the highest since May 25's $5.525

Cape routing remains the baseline as Hormuz stays contested and the August 30 US Iran exchange reintroduces uncertainty into the partial Suez recovery; Drewry Shanghai-Rotterdam fell 3% to $4,287 (August 27 data), a steeper decline than the prior week

Typhoon Saudel weakened to a tropical depression and briefly reentered PAR on August 30 without making landfall as a new low pressure area was rated a high chance of developing into a tropical depression the same day; Manila's port congestion eased to medium on Portcast's tracker, a median wait of 1.03 days for August 23 to 29, down from 1.37 days the week before on the same tracker; the Philippines' 12.5% forced labor tariff remains under review for a possible cut to 10%, unchanged since August 5

The US struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island August 30 to stop a mine laying operation, its first direct strike on Iranian territory in more than a month; Iran's Revolutionary Guard retaliated within hours with missiles and drones against two US bases in Jordan, Jordan says it intercepted eight of them with no injuries reported; the temporary Hormuz transit corridor Iran and Oman proposed August 26 has not been implemented

China's official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July, a fifth straight month below the expansion threshold but the best reading of the stretch, with production and new export orders both returning to expansion; Drewry's Transpacific lanes cooled after two weeks of sharp gains, Shanghai to Los Angeles stable at $6,818 and Shanghai to New York down 2% to $9,333 (August 27 data)

No material change this week; India's Section 301 forced labor tariff remains confirmed at 10%, and the separate 16 economy overcapacity investigation naming India remains unresolved as of August 31

No material change this week; Mexico's exposure to the unresolved 16 economy Section 301 overcapacity investigation remains an open risk, with roughly 85% of Mexican exports still shielded under USMCA rules of origin; USMCA Round 4 remains expected in September in Washington, DC, unchanged since Round 3 closed in Mexico City on July 23

Cape routing remains the confirmed baseline as the August 30 US Iran exchange reintroduces uncertainty into the partial Suez recovery; Brent crude eased to $88.29 (August 28) before climbing back to $90.23 (August 31), still below the $92.58 close of August 24

The US strikes Iran's Larak Island and Iran retaliates against two US bases in Jordan, overtaking the temporary Hormuz corridor Iran and Oman proposed a few days earlier; ocean freight reverses direction as Drewry WCI falls and the Baltic Dry Index jumps; wheat hits its highest level since February 2023; Typhoon Saudel weakens and Manila port congestion eases; China's manufacturing PMI improves to 49.8