BDI 2,660 • Transpacific FEU $8,007 • WCI $4,585 • Crude $116.72 • IRGC claims 7 vessels hit near Hormuz; Trump calls the claims fabricated • UKMTO confirms tanker hit by unknown projectile off Oman on October 22 • Brent settles at $116.72 on October 23 as US says Iran strike possible • Drewry WCI up 2% to $4,585; Asia to Europe blank sailings rise to 8 • Typhoon Rosal exits PAR without landfall; Manila median wait 1.99 daysBDI 2,660 • Transpacific FEU $8,007 • WCI $4,585 • Crude $116.72 • IRGC claims 7 vessels hit near Hormuz; Trump calls the claims fabricated • UKMTO confirms tanker hit by unknown projectile off Oman on October 22 • Brent settles at $116.72 on October 23 as US says Iran strike possible • Drewry WCI up 2% to $4,585; Asia to Europe blank sailings rise to 8 • Typhoon Rosal exits PAR without landfall; Manila median wait 1.99 days
🇵🇭 Philippines Risk Watch
Supply chain intelligence focused on Philippine import, port, and sourcing exposure
ℹ
Risk scores are based on public index signals and carrier advisories, reviewed by Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience. Updated weekly. Not intended for company-specific procurement, sourcing, or operational decisions.
PH PULSE SCORE65/100HIGH RISK
Updated October 26, 2026 · Next update November 2, 2026 Editorially reviewed weekly
Philippines risk is scored from the ASEAN region signal, reviewed weekly alongside global and regional data.
Philippine Port Status
Manila Avg. Vessel Wait
1.99 days
Freight Signal
▲ Manila median wait 1.99 days, medium congestion (Portcast, data October 18 to 24, 2026)
◈ TYPHOON SEASON & PORT STATUS
Portcast's Manila median wait rose to 1.99 days for October 18 to 24, and Tradlinx put South Manila's two week average berthing delay at 111.5 hours for October 5 to 18; Typhoon Rosal exited the PAR on October 24 without making landfall, with Signal No. 2 the highest raised
Signals Affecting Philippine Supply Chains this Week
Filtered from this week's top signals for ASEAN and global relevance · reviewed by Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience
⚔️ GeopoliticalCriticalNEW2026-10-26
Hormuz Attack Claims Mount as US Weighs Strikes on Iran
Iran claimed to have struck four vessels in the Persian Gulf on Thursday, October 23, 2026, after they transited the Strait of Hormuz using a US endorsed route that Tehran rejects, and said three others hit sea mines after using the same lanes (CBS News). President Trump dismissed the claims as fabrications intended to drive up oil prices, and EA WorldView reported that CENTCOM disputed them, saying it had cleared shipping lanes and that 95% of vessels crossed successfully. What UKMTO confirmed is narrower: a tanker was hit by an unknown projectile at 1715 GMT on October 22, about 7 nautical miles northeast of Limah, Oman, and continued its voyage (Anadolu, October 23). Oilprice.com reported on October 25 that at least 25 ships were hit in Hormuz in the first 20 days of October, per UKMTO and IRGC statements. Kpler put Hormuz oil flows at 11.7 million barrels a day for October to date, against 9.8 million in September and a February prewar average of 14.5 million. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said on October 23 a strike could come this weekend, President Trump said on October 25 there would not be a strike that day, and Gulf News, citing The Wall Street Journal, reported the USS George Washington was being loaded with bunker buster bombs in the Arabian Sea. Iran says messages are still being passed to the US through intermediaries; no new deal has been reached.
⚔️ GeopoliticalHighNEW2026-10-26
Houthis Target Riyadh Again as Carriers Return to Suez; FE1 Transit Still Pending
Saudi air defences intercepted and destroyed a Houthi ballistic missile launched toward Riyadh on October 24, 2026, coalition spokesman Turki al Malki said (Gulf News). A Houthi spokesperson said the group launched attacks on Riyadh's international airport on Sunday, October 25, hours after it resumed flights; that is a Houthi claim and was not independently confirmed in the sources reviewed (CBS News). EA WorldView reported on October 23 that a Houthi ballistic missile attack struck a training camp in Shabwa province, the largest single incident since fighting surged in September. On routing, Freightos said in its October 20 update that container carriers are steadily returning through Suez, with full recovery projected during Q1 2027, and that the gradual pace may limit schedule disruption and vessel bunching. The Premier Alliance's FE1 first Suez transit is not yet confirmed. Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said the East West pipeline's capacity, which feeds Red Sea exports from Yanbu, has surged from 2 million to 7 million barrels a day (CBS News, citing Al Arabiya Business, October 23); that is a capacity statement, not a throughput reading. No source checked this week confirmed direct US military action against the Houthis.
🚢 FreightMediumNEW2026-10-26
Drewry WCI Rises 2% to 4,585 Dollars as Asia to Europe Blank Sailings Jump to Eight
Drewry's World Container Index for October 22, 2026 rose 2% to 4,585 dollars per 40 foot container, its second consecutive weekly rise, according to The DCN's syndication of the release published October 23. Shanghai to Rotterdam rose 3% to 3,632 dollars and Shanghai to Genoa rose 5% to 4,152 dollars, with Drewry saying Asia to Europe carriers are reducing capacity via blank sailings to put upward pressure on rates; eight blank sailings were announced for next week, up from two. Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 2% to 8,007 dollars and Shanghai to New York rose 1% to 10,166 dollars, with strong US import demand supporting Transpacific rates and two Transpacific blank sailings announced, down from six. Drewry said Shanghai vessel waiting times fell from 97 hours to 38 hours between weeks 38 and 42. Freightos reported in its October 20 update that FBX01 China to US West Coast was level, with carriers implementing FAK increases as 2027 long term contract talks begin. The Baltic Dry Index fell 33 points to 2,660 on October 23 but gained about 5.9% on the week, its second straight weekly rise (Baird Maritime).
🛢️ Commodities & EnergyHighNEW2026-10-26
Brent Settles at 116.72 Dollars as US Diesel Rises to 6.276 Dollars
Brent settled at 116.72 dollars a barrel on October 23, 2026, up 3.1%, and WTI settled at 103.27 dollars, up 3.8%, according to Rio Times. Trading Economics reported Brent rose to about 116 dollars that day for a weekly gain of around 5%, its third consecutive weekly advance, and later fell back toward 115 dollars as traders weighed the risk of renewed strikes on Iran. The EIA's Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update, released October 20, put the US on highway diesel average at 6.276 dollars a gallon for the week of October 19, up 0.097 dollars and reversing the prior week's decline. In the Philippines, diesel is projected to rise 2 to 2.50 pesos a liter next week while gasoline falls 1 to 1.50 pesos, based on four days of Mean of Platts Singapore trading, per Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas (Philstar, October 24); the Department of Energy had not announced the official adjustment at publication. Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said the East West pipeline's capacity has surged from 2 million to 7 million barrels a day (CBS News, October 23); that is a capacity statement, not a throughput reading. This fills the Commodities and Energy core slot.
🤖 AI & TechMediumNEW2026-10-26
Samsung Overtakes SK hynix in HBM Revenue, per Bernstein, as AI Chip Profits Climb
Bernstein estimates Samsung generated 8.7 billion dollars of high bandwidth memory revenue in Q3 2026, up 33% from the prior quarter, overtaking SK hynix at an estimated 7.6 billion dollars, up 11%, according to Investing.com on October 22. Bernstein said Samsung holds a lead in HBM4 technology, though its HBM revenue came in 10% below Bernstein's initial forecast, and that price increases from new HBM contracts have not fully materialized. Samsung's own October 8 earnings guidance put preliminary Q3 operating profit at about 107.4 trillion won on sales of about 195 trillion won, and SK hynix reports its Q3 results on October 29, according to Korea JoongAng Daily on October 26, which tied the results to rising AI chip demand and HBM4 supply for Nvidia's Vera Rubin accelerator. HBM supply sets how quickly the AI servers behind planning, control tower and forecasting tools can be built out.
⚓ Port & TerminalHighNEW2026-10-26
Typhoon Rosal Exits PAR Without Landfall as Manila Median Wait Rises to 1.99 Days
Typhoon Rosal (Champi) exited the Philippine Area of Responsibility on October 24, 2026 without making landfall, according to PAGASA's 11 a.m. bulletin reported by GMA News. The highest wind signal raised was Signal No. 2, over Batanes and the northeastern Babuyan Islands (Philstar, October 22), below the earlier forecast of Signal No. 3 or 4. Reported impacts were concentrated in Batanes: Basco Airport closed and two Clark to Basco flights were cancelled, affecting 148 passengers; a Batanelco line fault affected Batan Island's power supply; and fallen trees and rockslides blocked roads (Astig.ph, October 24). No impact on Manila, Batangas or Subic port operations was reported in the sources reviewed. The bigger issue for Philippine importers is Manila itself. Portcast's port wide median vessel wait rose to 1.99 days for October 18 to 24 from 1.15 days the prior week. As a separate measure, Tradlinx put South Manila's two week average berthing delay at 111.5 hours, about 4.6 days, for October 5 to 18, with the last three days at 155.8 hours. Hapag-Lloyd's suspension of new bookings to Manila, Batangas and Subic Bay was reported by Splash247 on October 12 to run through December 31, 2026, with no update found as of October 26. This fills the Port and Terminal Performance rotation slot.
Current Tariff Exposure
Measure
Rate / Status
Note
Source
USTR Section 301 Forced Labor Tariff
12.5%
Philippines confirmed at the 12.5% rate in USTR's 60-economy forced labor determination, effective July 24, 2026. Manila continues pressing USTR to cut the rate to 10%; Department of Trade and Industry Undersecretary Allan Gepty said September 18, 2026 that the Philippines is formally awaiting a USTR assessment on the request, with a joint Department of Trade and Industry, Department of Finance, and Department of Labor and Employment administrative order supporting it. No rate change or fresher DTI or USTR update has been found as of October 26, 2026; the September 18 report is the most recent available.
Section 122 expired on schedule July 23, 2026, and was replaced in the same instant by the new Section 301 forced labor tariffs above, with no gap in coverage. No change this week.
Baker McKenzie Global Import Blog — July 24, 2026
USTR Section 301 Overcapacity Investigation
Not applicable to PH
USTR's March 11, 2026 notice initiating this separate structural excess capacity investigation names 16 economies, including neighboring Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia, but not the Philippines. No change to that scope has been announced through September 28, 2026; the investigation remained undetermined as of the most recent tracker update on September 10, most recent available, and the statutory determination window has been confirmed to run as late as March 2027.
The Commerce Department's proposal to add 14 more derivative products, mostly at a 25% rate, to the existing Section 232 steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs closed its public comment period on August 27, 2026, with no determination announced as of September 28, 2026, most recent available. Relevant to any Philippine exporters of covered derivative articles; the underlying Section 232 metals tariffs are separate from, and additional to, the forced labor tariff above.
Tariff information is editorial analysis only, not legal or compliance advice.
HAROLD'S TAKE — WEEK OF OCTOBER 26, 2026
“The Gulf got noisier, not calmer. Iran claims seven vessels were hit near Hormuz on October 23, Washington calls that fabricated, and US officials now say openly that a strike on Iran remains possible, so Brent settled at 116.72 dollars. Typhoon Rosal passed without landfall, but Manila's median wait rose to 1.99 days and diesel is climbing again, so Pulse Score edges up to 92, Critical Risk.”
— Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience · ChainPulse Intelligence