BDI 3,628 • Transpacific FEU $7,185 • WCI $4,465 • Crude $96.82 • Hormuz effectively closed as US Iran tanker war escalates • Panama Canal cuts transits as Hormuz rerouting adds demand • Baltic Dry Index hits five year high, Drewry WCI holds stable • Wheat eases from three year high, Black Sea exports still down • US diesel hits multi year highs on refinery strikesBDI 3,628 • Transpacific FEU $7,185 • WCI $4,465 • Crude $96.82 • Hormuz effectively closed as US Iran tanker war escalates • Panama Canal cuts transits as Hormuz rerouting adds demand • Baltic Dry Index hits five year high, Drewry WCI holds stable • Wheat eases from three year high, Black Sea exports still down • US diesel hits multi year highs on refinery strikes
🇵🇭 Philippines Risk Watch
Supply chain intelligence focused on Philippine import, port, and sourcing exposure
ℹ
Risk scores are based on public index signals and carrier advisories, reviewed by Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience. Updated weekly. Not intended for company-specific procurement, sourcing, or operational decisions.
PH PULSE SCORE69/100HIGH RISK
Updated September 7, 2026 · Next update September 14, 2026 Editorially reviewed weekly
Philippines risk is scored from the ASEAN region signal, reviewed weekly alongside global and regional data.
Philippine Port Status
Manila Avg. Vessel Wait
1.6 days
Off-Window Delay
Data pending — not published
Freight Signal
▲ Manila median wait 1.6 days, Medium congestion (Portcast, data through September 5, updated September 6)
◈ TYPHOON SEASON & PORT STATUS
Manila's port congestion ticked up to a medium 1.6 day median wait for August 30 to September 5, still healthy but up from 1.03 days the week before; Tropical Storm Krovanh, local name Pilandok, is moving away from the Philippines and is not expected to enter PAR, though it continues to enhance the southwest monsoon with flood risk in four Luzon provinces; the Philippines' 12.5% forced labor tariff remains under review for a possible cut to 10%, unchanged since early August
Signals Affecting Philippine Supply Chains this Week
Filtered from this week's top signals for ASEAN and global relevance · reviewed by Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience
⚔️ GeopoliticalCriticalNEW2026-09-07
Strait of Hormuz Effectively Closed as US Iran Tanker War Escalates
The US struck three Iranian oil tankers this week, including one near Kharg Island, Iran's primary export hub before the war, according to Al Jazeera reporting published September 6, 2026. Iran responded by launching ballistic missiles at two US warships, an aircraft carrier and a destroyer, and separately struck three more tankers along with three US linked vessels. Marine analytics cited in that reporting showed only 5 to 13 vessels a day transiting the Strait over the prior ten days, contradicting a US Treasury claim of 17 million barrels a day of flow. This is a sharper escalation than the August 30 exchange, when the US struck two Iranian missile launchers on Larak Island and Iran retaliated against two US bases in Jordan. The temporary Hormuz transit corridor Iran and Oman proposed on August 26 has not been confirmed as operating under this week's escalation.
🌿 ClimateHighNEW2026-09-07
Panama Canal Cuts Daily Transits as Hormuz Driven Rerouting Compounds Drought
The Panama Canal Authority cut daily transit capacity this week, reducing Neopanamax slots from 10 to 9 and Panamax slots from 26 to 25, a total drop from 36 to 34 transits a day, effective September 3, 2026, with a further cut to 32 total transits from September 15. The Authority cited rainfall running 34% below the historical average for May through August, with water inflows down 44%. Al Jazeera reporting published September 3 to 4, 2026 connected the timing to the Hormuz crisis: with Gulf producers unable to export their usual volumes through the Strait, countries are increasingly sourcing crude from the Americas instead, and US crude exports have surged 46% year over year, adding fresh demand at the Canal at the same moment it is cutting capacity.
🚢 FreightHighNEW2026-09-07
Baltic Dry Index Hits Five Year High as Drewry WCI Holds Stable
The Baltic Dry Index jumped to 3,628 on September 4, 2026, up from 3,186 the prior week and its highest level since October 2021. Drewry's World Container Index composite held essentially stable at $4,465 per 40ft container on data as of September 3, 2026, as Transpacific rates reversed higher: Shanghai to Los Angeles rose 5% to $7,185/FEU and Shanghai to New York rose 3% to $9,587/FEU. Asia to Europe rates fell further, with Shanghai to Rotterdam down 5% to $4,092/FEU and Shanghai to Genoa down 10% to $4,368/FEU. Drewry's Intra Asia Container Index rose 9% to $1,312, with typhoon linked congestion at Chinese ports cited as a contributing factor to the Transpacific strength.
⚔️ GeopoliticalHighNEW2026-09-07
Wheat Eases From Three Year High as Ukraine and Russia Exports Stay Depressed
Wheat eased to $7.16 a bushel as of September 7, 2026, down from last week's three year high of $7.66 on August 28. Russia's wheat exports for the full month of August fell more than 50% year over year. Ukraine's 2026/27 season to date exports remain down 34% from the same point last season. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, and persistent attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov continue to threaten shipments from both countries.
🏭 ManufacturingHighNEW2026-09-07
US Diesel Hits Multi Year Highs as Iran War and Refinery Strikes Squeeze Fuel Supply
Ultra low sulfur diesel futures reached what analyst John Kingston called effectively the highest price on record, surpassing the 2008 spike, according to FreightWaves reporting published September 2, 2026. New York Harbor heating oil hit $4.72 a gallon, a five year high, while California's Department of Energy regional diesel price index broke above $7.00 a gallon and the Lower Atlantic region averaged approximately $5.43. FreightWaves attributed the surge to structural refining losses from Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, which have removed more than 1 million barrels a day of refining capacity, layered on top of six months of Iran war disruption to global fuel flows.
🚢 FreightMediumNEW2026-09-07
Manila Port Wait Ticks Up to 1.6 Days as Krovanh Exits PAR, PH Tariff Cut Still Pending
Tropical Storm Krovanh, known locally as Pilandok, was tracked roughly 1,035 kilometers east northeast of extreme Northern Luzon as of the afternoon of September 6, 2026, moving eastward and not expected to reenter the Philippine Area of Responsibility, according to Philstar reporting published September 7. PAGASA said the storm continues to enhance the southwest monsoon, with the highest flash flood and landslide risk in Zambales, Bataan, Batangas, and Occidental Mindoro. Separately, Manila's port congestion ticked up to a medium 1.6 day median wait for August 30 to September 5 on Portcast's tracker, up from 1.03 days the week before but still within the medium band. The Philippines' request to lower its 12.5% Section 301 forced labor tariff to 10% remains pending, with no announced USTR movement since a Palace statement on August 6, 2026.
Current Tariff Exposure
Measure
Rate / Status
Note
Source
USTR Section 301 Forced Labor Tariff
12.5%
Philippines confirmed at the 12.5% rate in USTR's 60-economy forced labor determination, effective July 24, 2026. Manila established import-control procedures via a Joint Administrative Order on July 23 and continues pressing USTR to cut the rate to 10%; the lobbying effort remains pending, with no USTR movement since a Palace statement on August 6, 2026, the most recent confirmed status.
Section 122 expired on schedule July 23, 2026, and was replaced in the same instant by the new Section 301 forced labor tariffs above, with no gap in coverage. No change this week.
Baker McKenzie Global Import Blog — July 24, 2026
USTR Section 301 Overcapacity Investigation
Not applicable to PH
USTR's March 11, 2026 notice initiating this separate structural excess capacity investigation names 16 economies, including neighboring Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Cambodia, and Malaysia, but not the Philippines. No change to that scope has been announced through September 7, 2026; the statutory determination window has been confirmed to run as late as March 2027.
The Commerce Department's proposal to add 14 more derivative products, mostly at a 25% rate, to the existing Section 232 steel, aluminum, and copper tariffs closed its public comment period on August 27, 2026, with no determination announced as of September 7, 2026. Relevant to any Philippine exporters of covered derivative articles; the underlying Section 232 metals tariffs are separate from, and additional to, the forced labor tariff above.
Tariff information is editorial analysis only, not legal or compliance advice.
HAROLD'S TAKE — WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 7, 2026
“The Strait of Hormuz did not get any easier to defend as a temporary situation this week. The US hit three more Iranian tankers, Iran answered with missiles at two US warships and struck six more vessels, and Hormuz traffic is now down to single digit or low double digit crossings a day. What makes this week different is that the fallout is no longer contained to the Gulf. Gulf producers are rerouting crude through the Americas at record volumes, and that demand is landing on a Panama Canal that just cut its own daily transits because of drought, a genuine two corridor squeeze that neither index alone would have shown you. Add a five year high on the Baltic Dry Index and record diesel prices, and the Pulse Score moves to 93 from 92.”
— Harold Ramos, supply chain practitioner with 18+ years of experience · ChainPulse Intelligence